Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Ascent Seattle
decks
19
(6.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
167
80-82-5
overall winrate
49.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
49.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301
· median 1323
· range 1055–1541
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
959
Q1 1212
Q3 1427
1750
5% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 20.8% | 39 | 18-21-0 | 46.2% | 46.5% | 57.0% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.6% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 40.5% | -4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.6% | 15 | 8-6-1 | 56.7% | 55.3% | 54.1% | +1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 13 | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 58.8% | 61.3% | +4.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.5% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 52.4% | +1.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 62.1% | +5.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.8% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.4% | +3.7 |
| Fire Exia | 3.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 34.4% | -7.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 30.3% | -12.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -1.5 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.3% | -8.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.2% | +8.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.8% | -11.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.7% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.2% | -8.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.6% | -1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 64.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.4% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 31.4% | -10.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.0% | +9.6 |
| Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.5% | +23.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Wind Luxem Tamer | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.6 |
| Fire Allen | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane Rai | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.9% | +28.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.1% | -27.0 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Surging Bolt, Focused Flames, Backup Charger. Losers more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Fire Resonance Bauble, Wind Resonance Bauble.
Surging Bolt
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Focused Flames
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Backup Charger
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Annul Spell
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Vermilion Decree
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Heated Vengeance
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fire Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Insight
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Scorching Imperilment
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Quicksilver Grail
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 84 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 64 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surging Bolt | +0.71 | 5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scorching Imperilment | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ashwick Cremator | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Glowering Conflagration | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Shimmering Refraction | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Revealing Mesmer | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Forgelight Scepter | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Explosive Fractal | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ravenous Pyre | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Meltdown | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Everflame Staff | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Disenchant | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Art of War | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinderbloom Tender | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slash and Burn | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Wisdom | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silent Firebrand | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sigil of Budding Embers | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Lunge | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |